India’s West Asia reset, more sinned against than sinning

Why in the News?

India’s diplomatic approach to West Asia has recently stirred domestic controversy. This analysis, written by a former Indian Ambassador, examines the “reset” in India’s policy, particularly in the context of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel just before the latter launched a major military campaign against Iran. The piece argues that while the reset is strategically sound, its execution has been imbalanced and has left India exposed to criticism.

Background

• Deepening Engagement (Past Decade): India has significantly raised its diplomatic profile in West Asia. PM Modi has made numerous visits to all GCC countries, Israel (twice), the Palestinian Authority, and Iran. Key economic deals (CEPA) have been signed with the UAE and Oman, and negotiations are underway with the GCC and Israel.
• Core Interests: The Gulf region is India’s largest socio-economic partner, with over $160 billion in trade and a 10-million-strong diaspora. India’s political gains include de-hyphenation from Pakistan and stronger security ties.
• Regional Turmoil: Since October 2023, West Asia has been in exceptional turmoil. The recent direct Iranian drone and missile attacks on GCC countries have shattered the perception of the Gulf as an oasis of stability and undermined confidence in the traditional U.S. security guarantee (“Pax Americana”).

Feature

• Prioritisation: India has stopped trying to “balance” its public stance on controversial issues. It has conveyed “categorical support” to the security and stability of its GCC partners, prioritising their concerns.
• Autonomy: India’s statements now reflect its own views without relying on “third-party citations,” demonstrating growing confidence as a credible and autonomous power.
• Realisation: The author notes that policymakers have “finally realised which side of the bread is buttered,” implying a strategic tilt towards the Gulf monarchies.

Challenge

The article outlines the main criticisms levelled against the policy shift:

• Timing of Israel Visit: The Prime Minister’s visit to Israel (Feb 25-26), just before Tel Aviv’s offensive against Iran (Feb 2,8), is seen as poorly timed.
• Abandonment of Traditional Allies: Critics accuse India of abandoning its traditional support for the Palestinians and Iran, calling it “immoral.”
• Loss of Autonomy: Some allege that India is surrendering its sovereign autonomy to Western dictates.
• Strategic Overreach: There are fears that this activist policy could lead to overreach, exposing India to security threats and costly defence commitments.

Way Forward

• Keep Options Open: India must strive to keep its options more open in a notoriously mercurial region. The “Palestine Cause cannot be wished away forever.”
• Re-engage with Iran: Iran remains strategically important as a neighbour to Pakistan and Afghanistan, a potential oil supplier, and a large market. India should not write it off.
• Faster, More Nuanced Reactions: India could have reacted faster to key developments (like the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader) and used diplomatic language to express its views without damaging ties with the U.S. or Israel.

Leverage New Opportunities:

• Security: GCC states, disillusioned with the U.S. security guarantee, may seek to diversify partnerships. India should consider any such proposals carefully, based on a SWOT analysis.
• Economic: The GCC’s image as a stable hub has been damaged. India should use “eco-diplomacy” to position itself as a viable alternative hub for capital and talent.

Conclusion

The article concludes that a dynamic foreign policy must be grounded in realism and national interest. India’s West Asia policy is maturing, but it requires the right mix of balance, sensitivity, and agility. By quoting Lord Palmerston that nations have “no eternal allies” only “eternal interests,” the author reinforces the need for India to navigate the region’s complexities not with ideological rigidity, but with a flexible approach that can leverage emerging opportunities while mitigating risks.