China’s mega Dam on Brahmaputra and concerns in India 

Why in the News?

On July 19, 2025, China officially began construction of a $167.8 billion mega dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo/Brahmaputra River, near the Arunachal Pradesh border. The project, located at the “Great Bend” in Medog County, Tibet, is set to become the world’s largest hydropower plant with a projected capacity of 60,000 MW. This has triggered significant geopolitical and ecological concerns in India and Bangladesh, especially regarding downstream water flows.

Background

• The Brahmaputra is known as Yarlung Zangbo in Tibet and enters India at Gelling in Arunachal Pradesh, where it becomes the Siang and later joins as the Brahmaputra in Assam.
• China had announced the plan in 2021, but the July 2025 ground-breaking ceremony marks the formal start.
• The location is in a seismically active, ecologically fragile zone, making large infrastructure risky.
• India has historically raised concerns with China over such transboundary river projects, citing downstream water security and ecological impacts.

Features of the Project

• Hydropower Capacity: 60,000 MW – the largest in the world.
• Location: Great U-bend in Medog County, Tibet – near the tri-junction of China, India (Arunachal Pradesh), and Bhutan.
• Strategic Importance:
  • Water resource control.
  • Hydropower generation.
  • Potential tool for geopolitical leverage.

India’s Concerns:

• Sudden release or withholding of water can affect:
• Flood risks in Assam.
• Water availability in Arunachal and Assam.
• Potential ecological harm from dam-induced flooding or seismic activity.
• “Existential threat” to the Siang Valley as described by Arunachal CM Pema Khandu.

China’s Position:

• The dam is a sovereign project.
• Cooperation is ongoing with downstream countries.
• Guo Jiankin (China’s spokesperson): The dam falls within China’s territory.

Challenges

Hydrological Impact:

• Altered river flows may exacerbate flooding or droughts in Northeast India and Bangladesh.
• Possible 30-35% reduction in flow during the dry season.

Ecological Risks:

• Impact on biodiversity and fragile Himalayan ecosystems.
• Increased risk of disasters like dam failure, earthquakes, and landslides in a seismically active zone.

Geopolitical Tensions:

• It could escalate India-China tensions amid ongoing boundary disputes.
• Risk of water weaponisation as a potential tool in future conflicts.

Lack of Transparency:

• China has not shared real-time hydrological data, complicating flood prediction and disaster response in India.

Domestic Dissent in China:

• Reports of local resistance due to environmental concerns.

Way Forward

Diplomatic Engagement:

• Continue bilateral discussions on transboundary water sharing.
• Push for a multilateral river management treaty involving China, India, and Bangladesh.

Build Strategic Storage:

• Accelerate India’s Upper Siang project (300-meter-high dam) to buffer flow variations.
• Overcome local opposition through consultations.

Strengthen Domestic Capabilities:

• Invest in early warning systems, flood prediction models.
• Expand the National Water Development Authority’s plans to divert excess water to water-deficient regions.

Research and Mitigation:

• Conduct joint scientific studies with Bhutan and Bangladesh.
• Explore river interlinking projects where feasible.

Legal and Treaty-Based Approach:

• Press for international norms on transboundary rivers, similar to the Indus Water Treaty.
• Use platforms like UNESCO’s International Hydrological Programme for dialogue.

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