China-Led Trilateral Nexus: A Strategic Challenge for India in 2025

Why in the News ?

In June 2025, a significant strategic development took place: China hosted the first-ever trilateral meeting with Pakistan and Bangladesh in Kunming, following a similar China-Pakistan-Afghanistan trilateral held in May. These meetings signal a new phase in China’s regional diplomacy, attempting to reconfigure South Asia’s balance of power by creating Beijing-led minilateral frameworks.

The trilaterals come amid:

• Operation Sindoor (May 2025), India’s counter-terror strike against Pakistan,
• Shifting dynamics in Bangladesh and Afghanistan post-regime changes,
• China’s growing anxieties over India’s rising influence in the Indo-Pacific and its outreach to South Asian states.

As India focuses on asserting its strategic autonomy and regional leadership, this emerging China-Pakistan-led trilateral diplomacy represents a fresh geopolitical and security challenge to its interests.

Background: A Long History of Strategic Encirclement

The Legacy of 1962 and the China-Pakistan Axis

1. The 1962 India-China war entrenched strategic mistrust.
2. China developed a military and economic partnership with Pakistan as a way to contain India.
3. Pakistan, in turn, leveraged China’s support to counterbalance India, both militarily and diplomatically.
4. As of 2024, Pakistan owes China $29 billion, and over 80% of its arms come from Chinese sources.

CPEC and China’s South Asian Outreach

• The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) remains a flagship BRI project that runs through Gilgit-Baltistan, a territory claimed by India.
• China has gradually extended its presence in South Asia via infrastructure, debt diplomacy, and minilateral forums.
• The aim: “Strategic encirclement” of India, sometimes called the String of Pearls strategy.

Operation Sindoor and Regional Realignments

• In April 2025, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, allegedly backed by Pakistan, led to India’s surgical retaliation in May under Operation Sindoor.
• China condemned India’s actions, calling for dialogue and shielding Pakistan diplomatically.
• This was followed by increased military coordination, with Pakistan deploying Chinese-origin drones, radars, and jets during the escalation.

Features: The Structure and Strategy of the Trilateral Nexus

Emerging Trilateral Geometry

China is building trilateral platforms:

• China–Pakistan–Afghanistan
• China–Pakistan–Bangladesh

These are designed to:

• Create an alternative to SAARC, where India holds influence.
• Promote BRI investments and Chinese diplomacy in regional hotspots.
• Place Pakistan at the centre of new multilateral alignments, despite its economic decline.

Diplomatic Signalling

• China’s inclusion of Bangladesh and Afghanistan, countries with historical ties to India, signals a deliberate move to weaken India’s regional diplomacy.
• These trilaterals are not driven by development but by strategic and security considerations.

Weaponising Development and Connectivity

• China uses infrastructure investments as a geostrategic tool.
• Through the Digital Silk Road, energy pipelines, and port development, Beijing aims to:
  • Expand its strategic footprint.
  • Indebted and influencing smaller nations.
  • Undermine India-led regional initiatives, such as the International North-South Transport Corridor and BBIN (Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal).

Undermining India’s Regional Leverage

China’s trilateral diplomacy coincides with:

• Strained India-Bangladesh ties, post-election shifts in Dhaka.
• Increased Pakistani engagement with the new regime in Kabul and Dhaka.
• Use of economic pressure and military backing to create a distraction and diversion for India.

Challenges: Strategic, Security, and Diplomatic Risks for India

Strategic Encirclement 2.0

• The trilaterals aim to bypass India while embedding Chinese influence across the subcontinent.
• Bangladesh and Afghanistan can serve as flanking states to pressure India from the east and northwest, respectively.
• These moves mirror China’s strategy in the South China Sea: create facts on the ground, then claim legitimacy.

Pakistan’s Relevance Repackaged

• Pakistan, economically bankrupt and diplomatically isolated, is being repackaged by China as a regional connector.
• China’s support makes Pakistan diplomatically useful again and provides it with strategic cover.

Security and Terror Concerns

• Bangladesh and Afghanistan have a history of:
  Cross-border terrorist networks
  • Islamist radicalism
  • Smuggling and illegal arms trade

With Pakistan’s military and intelligence influence, and Chinese investment in security infrastructure, this triangle could:

• Fuel new insurgencies in Northeast India and Jammu & Kashmir.
• Increase cyber, drone, and hybrid warfare threats.

Dilution of Indian Influence

• Despite India’s goodwill gestures (e.g., allowing Nepal-Bangladesh energy cooperation), its bilateral issues with Dhaka, and the lack of formal ties with the Taliban, weaken its ability to counter these trilaterals.
• India’s image as a regional stabiliser may be challenged by China’s proactive multilateralism.

Erosion of Regional Autonomy

• South Asian nations may find it harder to maintain strategic autonomy when caught in a China-led dependency matrix.
• If India appears reactive or indifferent, it risks becoming isolated in its backyard.

Way Forward: India’s Strategic Response to the Trilateral Challenge

Assert Regional Redlines

India must communicate clear strategic red lines to its neighbours:

• Misadventures that threaten India’s security or territorial integrity will invite strong responses militarily, diplomatically, and economically.
• This was evident in India’s response to the Pahalgam attack, where New Delhi:
  • Suspended the Indus Waters Treaty.
  • Halted trade with Pakistan.
  • Blocked port access and targeted military assets.

Engage Proactively with Bangladesh and Afghanistan

• India must re-engage Bangladesh beyond high-level optics:
  • Restore confidence through water-sharing, trade facilitation, and cultural diplomacy.
  • Address grievances about border security and economic imbalances.
• On Afghanistan, India must:
  • Maintain backchannel talks with the Taliban.
  • Support grassroots and humanitarian initiatives.
  • Leverage its soft power through education and health diplomacy.

Strengthen Multilaterals of Its Own

India should expand forums like:

• India-Bangladesh-Nepal energy trilateral
• India-Sri Lanka-Maldives maritime security pact
• IBSA, BIMSTEC, and IORA to present a credible alternative to Chinese-led formats.

This creates a counter-narrative of inclusive development.

Economic Diplomacy and Infrastructure Connectivity

• India must accelerate cross-border projects:
  • Chabahar Port and INSTC
  • Kaladan Multi-modal Transit
  • Maitree Super Thermal Power Project (Bangladesh)
• Promote private sector investments in South Asia, offering an alternative to Chinese debt financing.

Military Preparedness and Strategic Signalling

• Continue military modernisation and border infrastructure development.
• Deepen defence and maritime cooperation with like-minded countries (e.g., Japan, Australia, Vietnam).
• Enhance cyber and drone warfare capacities to counter Chinese-Pakistani tech-backed insurgencies.

Reclaiming Thought Leadership

India must reclaim its strategic imagination:

• Promote non-alignment 2.0, where countries can benefit from India’s democratic development model.
• Use institutions like the Observer Research Foundation, RIS, and IDSA to offer research-based alternatives to BRI.
• Launch an India Development Initiative (IDI) with a focus on capacity building and institutional resilience in neighbouring countries.

Conclusion

The China-led trilateral nexus with Pakistan and countries like Bangladesh and Afghanistan represents a 21st-century version of strategic containment, with Beijing as the primary orchestrator and Islamabad as the willing proxy. While China uses these trilaterals to test India’s regional diplomacy, New Delhi must respond with a mix of firmness, foresight, and flexibility. India’s strategy should avoid overreaction but stay alert to long-term ramifications. As the stakes shift from battlegrounds to boardrooms, India must strengthen its regional partnerships, project confidence, and counter China’s narrative through development, security cooperation, and strategic empathy.

MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION

Question. How does the emergence of China-led trilateral groupings with Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan challenge India’s regional interests? Critically analyse the strategic implications and suggest policy responses for India.

PRACTICE PRACTICE QUESTION