Monsoon Sets in Over Kerala Late Amid El Niño Concerns

Why in the news?

Recently, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that the southwest monsoon set in over Kerala on Thursday, June 4. That’s three days after its usual June 1 date and outside of the IMD’s prediction period. This development is noteworthy because it aligns with concerns about El Niño conditions forming. El Niño usually means less rain during the monsoons in India, which could hit agriculture, water supplies, and economic growth hard.

Background

What is the Southwest Monsoon?

The Southwest Monsoon is a seasonal wind system that brings nearly 75% of India’s annual rainfall between June and September. It originates due to the differential heating of land and sea, causing moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal to move towards the Indian subcontinent.

Importance of Kerala Onset

• Kerala serves as the gateway for the Indian monsoon.
• The onset date over Kerala is used as a benchmark to track the monsoon’s progress across the country.
• Timely monsoon arrival is crucial for:
  • Kharif crop sowing.
  • Reservoir replenishment.
  • Groundwater recharge.
  • Hydropower generation.
  • Rural livelihoods.

Monsoon and El Niño

• El Niño refers to the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. 
• It alters global atmospheric circulation and often weakens the Indian monsoon. 
• The World Meteorological Organisation has estimated an 80% probability of El Niño conditions developing during July-August 2026, the core monsoon months.

Challenges

• El Niño’s Shadow: The monsoon arrives as the El Niño weather pattern intensifies. The World Meteorological Organisation has put the probability of El Niño conditions developing in July and August, the crucial monsoon months for sowing of Kharif crops, at 80 per cent. 
• The IMD has already predicted that overall seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96% of the long-period average, putting it in the “below-normal” category.
• Sectoral Strain: A bad monsoon will have a cascading impact, including lower reservoir levels, slower groundwater recharge and severe stress on the farm sector, which has more than half the cropped area as rain-fed.

Way Forward

Strengthen Climate-Resilient Agriculture

• Promote drought-resistant crop varieties.
• Encourage crop diversification.
• Expand climate-smart farming practices.

Improve Irrigation Efficiency

• Scale up micro-irrigation systems such as drip and sprinkler irrigation.
• Promote water-use efficiency under schemes like Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana.

Enhance Weather Forecasting

• Invest in high-resolution forecasting models.
• Improve dissemination of weather advisories through digital platforms.

Strengthen Water Resource Management

• Promote rainwater harvesting.
• Improve watershed development.
• Increase groundwater recharge efforts.

Expand Crop Insurance Coverage

• Strengthen implementation of Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana.
• Ensure timely compensation for weather-related crop losses.

Develop Climate Adaptation Strategies

• Integrate climate risks into agricultural planning.
• Build resilient rural infrastructure.
• Encourage state-specific adaptation measures.

Conclusion 

The southwest monsoon has hit Kerala three days late, with a strengthening El Niño looming large and the IMD already predicting a below-normal season. Although a late start does not necessarily seal the season’s fate, the chance of El Niño at 80% during the most important months for sowing presents serious difficulties for farm production, water reserves and the broader economy. This is the time of year for careful stewardship and close monitoring of the weather.