India’s Total Fertility Rate at 2.0: Demographic Dividend

The Total Fertility Rate in India remains at 2.0; Bihar records the highest count, and Bengal the lowest. The Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2021, released by the Registrar General of India (RGI), presents a crucial snapshot of India’s demographic transition. It confirms that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime, stood at 2.0 in 2021, the same as 2020

Highlights

• National Average (2021): 2.0
• Highest: Bihar (3.0)
• Lowest: West Bengal and Delhi (1.4 each)

Age Composition Trends

• 0–14 age group: Down from 41.2% (1971) to 24.8% (2021)
• 15–59 (working-age): Up from 53.4% to 66.2%
• 60+ (elderly): Up from 6% to 9%, with 65+ alone rising from 5.3% to 5.9%

States with the Highest Elderly Populations

• Kerala (14.4%), Tamil Nadu (12.9%), Himachal Pradesh (12.3%)

States with Lowest Elderly Populations

• Bihar (6.9%), Assam (7.0%), Delhi (7.1%
• Mean Age at Effective Marriage (Females): Rose from 19.3 years (1990) to 22.5 years (2021)

Implications 

• Demographic Dividend: India is currently in a “demographic sweet spot,” with over 66% of its population in the working-age group (15–59). However, the declining TFR signals a shrinking base of future workers, and this window may close within two decades.
• Emerging Demographic Divide: States like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, with higher TFRs, will continue to grow rapidly, whereas southern and some eastern states with sub-replacement fertility may see population stagnation or decline, posing inter-state resource and representation challenges.
• Ageing Population:  Kerala and Tamil Nadu are entering a phase similar to that of ageing societies in East Asia and Europe. This implies greater healthcare costs, pension burdens, and the need for elderly care infrastructure.
• Policy. While the 2024 interim Budget proposed a high-power committee to tackle “population growth,” the SRS data suggests the real challenge is population ageing and regional imbalance, not an uncontrolled rise.
• Census Delay & Data Gaps India has not conducted a Census since 2011. Without updated population data, evidence-based policymaking remains hampered. The SRS provides estimates, but cannot replace the granularity and accuracy of a Census.

Conclusion

• India is experiencing an advanced demographic transition, evident in its falling TFR, delayed marriage age, and rising elderly population. 
• While policymakers continue to frame concerns in terms of overpopulation, the real challenge is managing the post-replacement-level dynamics, ensuring social security, labour force participation, and inter-generational equity in a rapidly changing demographic landscape.

PRELIMS PRACTICE QUESTION

Q. Concerning the recent Sample Registration System (SRS) 2021 report, consider the following statements:

1. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in India has fallen below the replacement level for the first time since independence.
2. Kerala has the lowest TFR among all Indian states.
3. The share of the elderly population (60+) has been increasing consistently since 1971, while the proportion of the population in the 0–14 age group has declined.
4. The SRS survey provides decadal population census data collected from over 88,000 villages and urban units.
   

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

A. 1 and 3 only
B. 3 only
C. 2 and 4 only
D. 1, 3 and 4 only

Correct Answer: (B). 3 only

Explanation:

• Statement 1 – Incorrect: India reached the replacement level TFR of 2.1 in 2019, so this is not the first time it has fallen below.
• Statement 2 – Incorrect: Kerala has a low TFR (1.5), but Delhi and West Bengal have the lowest (1.4).
• Statement 3 – Correct: According to SRS data, there has been a consistent rise in elderly population and a decline in the 0–14 age group since 1971.
• Statement 4 – Incorrect: The SRS is an annual demographic survey, not a decennial census. Also, it covers 8,842 sample units, not 88,000.

Also Read Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR)